The Whale Counters Return to Point Vicente Dec. 1. Last Winter, Their Numbers and NOAA's Told Different Stories.

On May 25, 2026, the volunteers on the back patio of the Point Vicente Interpretive Center ended their 42nd season with a record-low northbound gray whale count of 445. Their southbound count of 214 was the second-lowest they have recorded. Two months later, NOAA Fisheries put the eastern North Pacific gray whale population at 17,750 for the 2025/2026 southbound migration. That was up from a low of roughly 11,700 to 14,200 the season before.

So the Peninsula's own counts stayed near the bottom of their history while the population estimate rose. The patio measures how many whales pass close to shore, NOAA estimates how many whales exist, and the gap between them says something about the whales passing Rancho Palos Verdes this winter. The American Cetacean Society–Los Angeles returns to the patio on Dec. 1, 2026, and the gap is a good reason to go see it in person.

What the Patio Actually Counts

The ACS/LA Gray Whale Census and Behavior Project has run every year since 1979, apart from two seasons in the early 1980s. Its main station has been the PVIC patio since the 1985–86 season. Trained volunteers watch from more than 100 feet above the water. The sea floor drops off sharply close to shore there, so whales that come near the coast pass within easy binocular range.

The census says plainly what it can't do. Most gray whales off this coast take offshore routes, mainly through the Channel Islands, and that is especially true going south. The patio sees only a small share of the population. The project's own description says its counts track how heavily the nearshore route is used, and they can't be used to estimate total population.

NOAA's count happens far up the coast at its Granite Canyon field station, south of Monterey. Observers there count southbound whales from December through February using visual surveys, infrared cameras that detect whale breath at night, and test flights of fixed-wing drones. Last winter, 15 observers logged 302.2 hours over 39 survey days and counted an estimated 2,563 whales. The busiest day was Jan. 19, 2026, with 158 whales.

Granite Canyon is built to estimate the whole population. The PVIC patio measures how many whales choose to swim close to the Peninsula's shore.

Three Seasons Side by Side

The longer record puts these numbers in perspective. Before 2024/25, the patio's southbound totals ranged from 293 to 1,902, and its northbound totals from 521 to 3,412. Last winter's southbound count of 214 was a recovery from 130, but it still sits below the low end of the census's history before 2024. Even with NOAA's estimate up, fewer whales are passing close to this stretch of coast.

NOAA Is Asking the Same Question

NOAA isn't treating its own rise as a simple recovery. Its July 2026 technical memorandum calls the 17,750 estimate "an encouraging finding." It then notes that recent year-to-year increases are faster than gray whales can reproduce, and that they came while calf production stayed low. The agency concludes that something besides births and deaths must be changing the count. Possibilities include sampling error, changes in how easily whales are detected, and "potential changes in gray whale migratory behavior."

The patio volunteers have been recording that kind of behavior change for several seasons. Their 2024/25 summary described "another late southbound migration," possibly to give whales more feeding time up north. It also noted a large number of thin whales, and reported many grays seen in the Gulf of California as whales traveled farther south during a cold-water La Niña period. If whales are changing where and when they travel, an offshore population can grow while the nearshore route past Point Vicente stays quiet.

The broader backdrop is a population still recovering from a hard stretch. NOAA estimated 25,000 to 30,000 gray whales in 2016. It then declared an Unusual Mortality Event after strandings rose along the West Coast, and that event lasted through November 2023. NOAA linked it to changes in Arctic and sub-Arctic feeding areas that left many whales malnourished and fewer calves born. According to the same page, calf production has stayed low since 2019.

Calves Are the Number to Watch This Season

Because the totals are hard to read, the census pays particular attention to calves, which show whether new whales are entering the population. In 2024/25, the patio recorded no southbound newborn calves, a first in the project's history. Last season it counted 17. Calves made up 7.9% of southbound whales, up from zero, and 3.6% of northbound whales, up from 1.6%. Census Director Alisa Schulman-Janiger called the season-end result "cautious optimism."

She sounded the same way partway through the season. In February 2026, she told Spectrum News that the count was "somewhat higher than last year," with eight calves seen by then compared with no southbound calves the year before. The article also reported her concern about warmer Arctic waters and the whales' food supply.

Mother-and-calf pairs tend to come late in the season. ACS/LA's 2017–18 summary says the northbound cow-calf peak typically follows the main northbound pulse by four to eight weeks. That season the cow-calf peak fell in the week of April 20–26. So the sightings that will show whether last year's rebound holds are more likely in spring than in December.

How a Season Plays Out From the Bluff

The 2024/25 summary gives a week-by-week example of a full season. It is one season's pattern, not a forecast, but it shows how the months progressed:

• Southbound peak: Jan. 25–31, with a high of 11 southbound grays on Jan. 27.
• Turnaround: Feb. 21, when the migration shifted from mostly southbound to mostly northbound.
• Northbound peak: Mar. 15–21, when 96 grays passed, with a single-day high of 21 on March 15.
• Late stragglers: seven northbound grays in the final four days before May 25.

The same season had 50 days out of 173 with no gray whales at all, many of them with excellent visibility. A quiet day for grays can still be busy offshore, though. The volunteers also recorded blue, fin, humpback, minke and sperm whales, several dolphin species, sea lions, harbor seals and an elephant seal. On the final day of last season, they saw no grays. They did watch a likely fin whale, a humpback and a foraging minke working around feeding groups of common dolphins about a mile offshore.

Before You Drive Out

1. Check the hours. The Point Vicente Interpretive Center at 31501 Palos Verdes Drive West has its museum and gift shop open 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. daily, and the museum accepts donations. The park grounds are open dawn to dusk.
2. Watch the rain. The city lists Lower Point Vicente as part of the Palos Verdes Nature Preserve. On Nov. 1, 2026, Rancho Palos Verdes closed the Preserve and Abalone Cove Park after heavy rain and said trails could stay closed up to 48 hours after the last rainfall. The city posts updates at rpvca.gov/trailalerts, and the Open Space and Trails Division can be reached at 310-491-5775. Weather affects the census as well. In 2024/25 it shut down for three days because of heavy rain and flooding.
3. Bring binoculars. The census team works in daylight, seven days a week, using 7x50 binoculars with built-in reticles and compasses, and uses spotting scopes to confirm sightings.
4. Look up the day's count first. ACS/LA posts daily counts and sighting details on its Today's Whale Count page and on its Facebook page throughout the season.

The project depends on volunteers. In 2024/25, 100 volunteers contributed 8,767 hours over 173 days, and twelve core observers each logged more than 200 hours. ACS/LA asks anyone interested in joining to contact the census director through the census project page.

Early December on the Peninsula

The census's first week back overlaps with several of the Peninsula's holiday events:

• Dec. 1: ACS/LA's 43rd season begins on the PVIC patio.
• Dec. 4, 5:30 to 9:30 p.m.: The Rancho Palos Verdes Tree Lighting Ceremony at Ken Dyda Civic Center, 30940 Hawthorne Blvd., with tree and menorah lighting, snow sledding and food trucks.
• Dec. 5, 2 to 8 p.m.: The Winter Festival at the same Civic Center, with snow sledding, guided night hikes and carolers.
• Dec. 12: The Peninsula Parade of Lights runs from Silver Spur Road and Drybank Drive past the Promenade on the Peninsula to Norris Center Drive. Free parking is listed at Town & Country Center, Peninsula Shopping Center and Promenade P|V.

For more seasonal plans around the Hill, the Palos Verdes Peninsula neighborhood guide and our summer evenings roundup have more ideas.

If watching the coastline over the seasons is part of why the Peninsula feels like home, I'm always happy to talk about the views, trails and quieter corners that make life here special. You can reach me through Meghan Vittetoe. Let's Connect.